The number one question we’ve been asked recently is whether stock prices have climbed too high and are due for a fall. It’s the natural question to ask after the S&P 500 reached 57 new highs last year and just had back-to-back years of 25%+ returns – something that has happened only three other times […]
News
Is alcohol use drying up?. . .
Alcohol purveyors suffered through a tough start to 2025. Dry January, a campaign to get people to abstain from alcohol for the first month of the year, continues to gain momentum with 75 million American adults expected to have tried the challenge this year. Former U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy piled on with a […]
The second order impact of tariffs…
Investors can be forgiven for tuning out the daily news on America’s ever-evolving trade policies. Hardly a day goes by without reports of either a new proposal or the reversal of an old one. In the face of all this uncertainty, the market consensus seems to be embracing two things. First, trade duties are back […]
Not our usual page one fare…
No stocks, no bonds, no squiggly lines on graphs this time. Just a moral dilemma which was raised in an article in the year-end edition of The Economist. Here goes. You are sitting on a dock with a rescue rope next to you. You see a man floundering in the water. What do you do? […]
Top financial planning topics of 2024…
When it comes to financial planning, no matter what the world throws at us, some questions remain constant. How do I manage my day-to-day finances? How do I prepare for the future? And, perhaps most importantly, how do I deal with life’s curveballs? Sometimes, other topics bubble up, depending on the year, the market, or […]
The case for bonds remains strong . . .
Investors today can be excused for falling out love with bonds. Historically, the asset class has produced 5%-6% returns over the very long term. However, in the year just ended, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, a broad measure of the U.S. bond market, squeaked out a 1.4% total return, and over the last five years, […]
What should we worry about now? . . .
In this season of January forecasts, we seldom expect many predictions to hit their mark. After all, in 2023, the nearly universally expected U.S. recession never came, and in 2024, the consensus on interest rates was completely wrong. Still, expert predictions do force us to think about risks, and that may be their real purpose. […]
America and China: How deep is the mistrust?…
This page is not about economics. I really don’t know whether President Trump will put a 100% tariff on goods coming from China or whether China will use its enormous reserve of rare earth minerals as a bargaining chip with us. What I do know, however, is that China-U.S. relations will dominate global politics for […]
More ETFs, more problems?…
In the ever-evolving world of finance, it feels like there’s an announcement of a new ETF almost every day. Over the past five years, the number of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. has skyrocketed from approximately 2,000 to over 3,500—a staggering increase. So far this year, nearly 400 new ETFs have entered the market. […]
The year in statistics…
As part of their job, equity analysts are required to read about a wide range of topics, everything from the impact of declining birth rates on global economic growth to the rising price of arabica coffee beans. This is, without a doubt, what keeps our work interesting and, hopefully, useful. Listed below are several data […]
Some things are the same as ever…
A look back at 2024 will cause many to shake their heads at the wild and seemingly abnormal events that occurred over the course of the year. In the U.S, the incumbent president was effectively removed from the ballot by his own party, the previous president was convicted of 34 felonies and then won reelection […]
Chocolate FTW (For The Win)…
Our annual chocolate recipe winner this year comes from—wait for it—Dubai…via TikTok…via our Head of Operations, Jordan! Congratulations to Jordan Lafayette with the “Dubai Chocolate Bar” submission. Jordan has been with the firm for 13 years, and while technically she is a Millennial, she exhibits some cuspy Gen Z traits, including her fondness for the […]