We have been writing this newsletter for 25 years now. We are not market forecasters. We don’t try to tell you when to buy or when to sell. We are long-term investors, almost always fully invested. We help clients decide on an appropriate level of risk, stocks versus bonds versus cash, and then we stick […]
News & Insights
Forget about success. Try “lying flat.”
There’s a new movement taking hold among China’s 20- and 30-somethings, and it’s absolutely antithetical to the way they grew up. Indoctrinated since birth to believe that hard work and intense drive were the only paths forward, they have been competing fiercely all their lives for top university spots, good jobs, and later, the best […]
Will there be a world without work?
In 1930, the economist John Maynard Keynes wrote a short essay called “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren,” where he envisioned technological advances enabling us to do all the work of agriculture, mining, and manufacturing with only a quarter of the human effort. Future generations, he said, would work only 15 hours a week. In fact, […]
The case for rising productivity in the U.S.
For most of the past 15 years, the U.S. has suffered from a productivity problem. Except for a spike after the 2009 Financial Crisis, productivity gains have been stuck at 1% per year over the past decade, or half the long-term average. Why does this matter? Economies that produce more with the same number of […]
Getting Goods from Here to There…
American consumers are confronting a new reality– product shortages and rising prices. To shed some light on current conditions and how we ended up in this circumstance, I reached out to my nephew Luke Doremus. Luke has spent his entire career in the shipping industry and is now Director of Sales for Ports America, the […]
Baby drought, higher deaths, lower migration…
We’re still unravelling COVID’s effects on global and national populations, but so far, this is what we’re seeing: Higher deaths as measured by “excess mortality” around the world; lower migration between countries; out-migration from big cities to smaller ones or suburbs, at least in the U.S.; and perhaps most fascinating of all, a baby drought. […]
So, How Are You Feeling?…
A lot of people have had a lot to deal with this past year. Some lost loved ones and friends. Some lost jobs, others had their income reduced. And all of us had our lives affected one way or another by being shut in at home for months. For some this meant anxiety and sadness. […]
“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance…”
This quote is from Chuck Prince, CEO of Citigroup, in July 2007, on why the bank loosened housing lending standards and created ever more complex derivative securities. They had to keep up with the competition. And we all know how this ended – the Housing Bubble and Great Recession of 2007-2009. Today, are we “whistling […]
Considering an EV as Your Next Car?…
Our family of five needs a new car and we’re considering, for the first time, an Electric Vehicle (EV). If you haven’t done research into EVs, the terminology can be confusing. There’s charging, range, tax credits, and kilowatt-hours. Start by reviewing unbiased rankings of EVs by Edmunds or Consumer Reports. Many car concepts will begin […]
The State of the State…
It has been 14 months now since the arrival of COVID in Vermont. We seem to be past the worst now and are slowly getting back to some semblance of normal. This is a good time to assess what has happened to the Vermont economy, and who better to turn to than our long-time friend, […]
Sowing the Seeds of Disruption…
Over the last two years, six out of 10 of the world’s largest food companies have set goals to increase regenerative agriculture in their supply chains. Regenerative agriculture refers to practices aimed at replenishing topsoil levels, improving soil health, and sequestering carbon. Examples include planting cover crops to reduce soil erosion and fertilizer use, mixing […]
Getting in on the Game…
Originally crypto exchanges were known as a good place for bad actors to transfer funds anonymously. But the market has evolved since 2010 when Bitcoin, the most prominent digital currency, was first introduced. In its recently released 2021 State of U.S. Crypto Report, exchange provider Gemini found that just over 21 million adults or about […]
