News

Recent global events, both economic and political, have us thinking a lot about the United States’ competitive standing in the world today. How has the economic landscape changed these past few years, and do we have what it takes to keep up? Two factors determine a country’s economic growth rate. The first, the growth of […]

Corporate profits still are rising, and that’s good news in a world with plenty to worry about. War, inflation, political divisiveness, take your pick — you’d be forgiven for thinking things are going to hell in a handbasket. But at least for now, corporate sales and earnings are staying resilient. According to FactSet, 77% of […]

The first thing that is apparent today is that Western sanctions against Russia have not brought the country to its knees (see chart right). For sure if you are looking for high-end Western brands or a McDonald’s burger, then sanctions have taken a bite, but Russia in general is a closed economy. It manufactures internally […]

It has been a while since we have experienced a traditional recession and bear market. The COVID recession of February 2020 was a different kind. It was short (two months), and the bear market (one month) was very quick. Before COVID, you have to go all the way back to the housing crisis of December […]

For most of the past decade, we didn’t spend a lot of time thinking about how to invest our clients’ cash. With short-term interest rates pegged near zero, it didn’t really matter whether your “ready” funds were in a bank deposit account, money market fund, CD, or short-term Treasury bill. Income on cash-like instruments of […]

Dropping bond prices have recently caused anguish for many investors, especially since bonds are usually held out as the less risky part of a balanced portfolio. With the U.S. bond market losing more than 9% so far in 2022, it’s natural to wonder if bonds are still holding up their end of the bargain. Over […]

From the end of the Civil War to 1914, globalization, or the increase in trade between nations, grew dramatically. This was due in part to leaps in transportation technology like steamships, the building of the Suez/Panama Canals, and transatlantic cables which allowed for more direct telegraph links. Then came World War I, and globalization came […]

The stork is not working overtime: 10.6 million – the number of babies born in China in 2021, the lowest since 1949. The one child policy put in place in 1980 was highly effective. Now China needs more babies, but urban couples are balking. Like everywhere, raising more children is increasingly expensive. (Barron’s)7.3 million – […]

Picture a factory that sucks carbon dioxide out of the air to reduce global warming, then turns it into stone. Well, it’s real, and it’s been operating outside of Reykjavik, Iceland since last September. It’s also been identified as one of the 10 breakthrough technologies of 2022 by the MIT Technology Review, which has been […]

It’s our 36th year of tracking the Hanson Index, our yearly lighthearted look at local prices for Vermont essentials like a Ben & Jerry’s ice cream cone or a Burlington beach permit. As you’d expect, prices are mostly up, but luckily, our Hanson Index doesn’t include the worst of the past year’s price hikes like […]

Barton Biggs was one of the absolute best stock market commentators in the 1980s and 90s. He was a partner at Morgan Stanley for over 30 years and the firm’s first Global Strategist. I saved one of his commentaries from 1982, which talks about the need for different strategies in different times. “Winston Churchill in […]

You have saved diligently for 20, 30, even 40 years. Now comes the big question: How much can you comfortably withdraw from your nest egg and not run out of funds by the time you die? This is not an inconsequential question since life expectancy is up significantly the past 50 years. The average 65-year-old […]