As professional investors, we spend a lot of time thinking about how to best construct portfolios for our clients. These efforts focus on identifying the combination of assets (stocks, bonds, cash etc.) that will produce the maximum return for a desired level of risk. A whole body of research, based on vast quantities of historic […]
News
“There are weeks when decades happen.” – Vladimir Lenin
This is one of those times. The invasion of Ukraine has produced horrors on the ground, a refugee crisis of one to two million Ukrainians fleeing to neighboring countries (and counting), and a response by the West that has been both strong and unified. Not only have Western Europe and the U.S. put lockdown restrictions […]
Back to normal! Uh, excuse me, what again is normal?…
Now that we are getting back to some semblance of normal, we have all sorts of questions. Should we still wear masks even where it is no longer officially required? And what about restaurants? Some of us have not been inside one for months if not years. Everything still the same there? And what about […]
Are wage gains here to stay?…
Companies are struggling to cope with rising wage costs. As reported in recent earnings calls, this fact seems to be true regardless of whether you are a firm trying to attract and retain hourly workers or highly paid software engineers. In some cases, the labor shortage is having an immediate impact; restaurants like Starbucks have […]
What is a CCRC anyway?…
Finding proper care as we age is an important financial and emotional decision. I had the opportunity to talk with Martha Maksym, the CEO of Wake Robin. Located in Shelburne, Wake Robin is Vermont’s only Continuing Care Retirement Community (CCRC). Tell me about your personal experience and how you became the CEO of Wake Robin. […]
The tale of the tape…
Over the year ending last July, the U.S. population grew by the smallest amount (+0.12%) since records began. Births exceeded deaths by 148,000, and net immigration (foreigners coming vs. going) added 245,000. Deaths increased as COVID became the third biggest killer in the country, and many births were probably delayed due to the pandemic. The […]
As they say in Texas, “That was a long bus ride for not very much.” …
I am talking about the value of making market predictions. The yield curve (see chart) is rising now, meaning short-term rates are moving higher and long-term rates also. Starting from the bottom, the lines represent the yield curve at the beginning of 2021, a month ago, a week ago, and today. The point is rates […]
The markets…looking back and ahead…
Two stock market truisms come to mind when I think about last year. The first is that “Markets climb a wall of worry.” The continued spread of COVID, rising inflation, and the threat of higher rates all weighed on investors’ minds in 2021. The second truism, “Don’t fight the Fed,” served as a kind of […]
Money is not always enough at the leading edge…
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that two Chinese semiconductor foundries just went under and now are among the nation’s six failed chip making projects the last three years. China has thrown billions into building an independent semiconductor industry, but it hasn’t been easy. Throwing money at the problem hasn’t been enough. Everyone knows China […]
A look under the hood at H+D…
It’s been one year since Hanson + Doremus moved to leadership under Sven Eklof, Art Wright, and Julie Won, and we’re pleased to say it’s been a successful one. Though Eric Hanson & Anne Doremus (the H and the D in our logo) stepped down from management at the end of 2020, much about the […]
If you’re right more than 50% of the time… you’re lying…
Not sure exactly who said this, but they were talking about making predictions. It’s just a fool’s errand to try to look too precisely into the future. Unfortunately, this is what we all must do when dealing with our investments. COVID has been a real disruptor to everyone’s daily lives but surprisingly not a big […]
It’s five years from now…What am I kicking myself for for not having bought?…
This line is from a New Yorker cartoon dating back decades. We all want to know what is going to happen in the future but it’s a slippery slope. The temptation is there to forecast but the results are often random at best. As Wilmot Kidd, a very successful long-term portfolio manager, recently said in […]