From an economic perspective, the last decade was remarkable. Unemployment declined steadily, inflation, which can heat up during the late stages of an economic recovery, remained muted and interest rates low. Investors also had a good 10 years. Between the end of 2009 and 2019, stocks in the S&P 500 returned just over 250% and […]
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Why Your Cell Phone Plan Is So Expensive…
In the introduction to his new book, The Great Reversal, economist Thomas Philippon tells a wonderful story about landing in Boston in 1999 as a native of France, eager to start his Ph.D. program in economics at MIT. After finding a place to live and taking care of the basics, he goes to buy a […]
“A Good Forecaster is Not Smarter Than Everyone Else, He Merely Has his Ignorance Better Organized.” – Anonymous
January is almost upon us and in the investment business, that means a wave of forecasts are headed our way. After a year of so much uncertainty on everything from trade to the elections, many will find these prognostications soothing. But unfortunately, both the nature of forecasting and our own behavioral biases suggest that we […]
O.K., It’s Time To Talk Bubbles…
We’re Number 1! The current Economic Recovery has set a record, the longest advance in U.S. history. That’s nice, but the skeptics will immediately ask, when’s the next crash coming? Right now things in the U.S. look good so no immediate panic – but we know that life is cyclical and a recession will happen […]
The Reign of the Superstar…
We are all aware of the growing income inequality in our nation and around the world. A small group of people are taking an increasingly large share of the pie. This topic is center stage on some of the 2020 presidential campaign platforms and frequently referenced in news articles – however less has been mentioned […]
The Stories We Tell…
In 1985 Brad E. Bell and Elizabeth F. Loftus did a controlled experiment to find out how subjects playing the role of jury members responded to different presentations of the same evidence. The result was that vivid narratives full of colorful detail were far more effective than bland presentations of fact. In one example, they […]
Does Debt Matter Anymore?..
There are two methods by which a country may achieve an annual spending budget. First funds can be raised through taxation of citizens and businesses. The second is to borrow. Historically a prudent monetary policy would not utilize the second option unless there is an emergency, like war or economic recessions. Yet we find ourselves […]
Keeping up with Hanson & Doremus…
It’s hard to believe we have been going now for almost twenty-five years. We started here in the Maltex building in Burlington in 1995 with just two people. We have grown to ten today. Some things however have not changed. We are as committed now as we were then to professional money management and providing […]
Understanding China…
Forty years ago, when China was a lot less consequential our relationship was a lot easier. Now things are different. China is not only a manufacturing powerhouse, but they are also producing top of the line products that threaten us now and into the future. We will be butting heads with them for some time. […]
Is There Such a Thing as Too Much Choice?…
A good friend of mine who was hosting a party asked my advice on selecting two entrée items and some hors d’oeuvres based on the catering company’s offerings. No problem, I like food. What I encountered was page upon page of great sounding options. I quickly marked the items to revisit but before I knew […]
During a Gold Rush, Sell Shovels…
The people who made the most money during the Gold Rush of 1858 were not the thousands of prospectors hoping to strike it rich, but the merchants who supplied them with everything from pic-axes to wagon wheels. While gold was discovered, the basic laws of supply and demand (too little gold, too many people searching […]
One Chart and I am an Immigration Expert…
Immigration is a polarizing issue. On the one side you have the ‘Restrictionists’ led by Stephen Miller in the White House who wants to do everything to restrict and reduce legal and illegal immigration. On the other side you have those who want to create a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million illegal […]
