Just when you thought you could forget about Bitcoin…it’s back. Bitcoin is a digital currency that is free from any influence by central banks. Libertarians like it for it’s independent, secure and untraceable features. But for a whole slew of reasons Bitcoin has not taken off as a medium of exchange. One problem is volatility. […]
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Why so Negative?…
When you lend money to the government by buying a Treasury bond, it’s an investment and not a favor. You expect to get back more than you put in, in the form of interest, in order to compensate you for a multitude of risks and the loss of use of your money. This makes recent […]
“In Investing, What is Comfortable is Rarely Profitable.” Robert Arnott
The outlook for global economic growth is plagued by uncertainty today. Just how far will the U.S. and China go in their efforts to win the current trade war? Will the U.K. arrive at a solution to the ongoing Brexit impasse? Will central banks around the globe continue their easy money policies? At the industry […]
Things That Have Crossed Our Desk…
Health Care is a Big Number. There is nothing more Rube Goldberg-esque than health care in America. It is one scaffold stacked on top of another scaffold. No one would ever create this system from scratch. But so be it, we have to play the hand we’re dealt. The good news is health costs have […]
The Wall Street Journal, Then and Now…
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a special issue on July 8 commemorating the 130th anniversary of the first edition, July 8, 1889. In my estimation, the WSJ, along with The New York Times and The Economist are the three absolute best publications. Read them. A lot has changed since 1889, including the price of […]
What Happens When Public Transit Becomes Free?…
Have you heard that in Tallinn, Estonia, public transportation is free for residents? Not only has it been free since 2013, but it also works great. According to The Economist, “The buses are on time, the trams are shiny and new, and passengers usually get a seat.” And that’s not all. Far from draining city […]
In Case You Haven’t Heard…
Our population is getting older and doing so at a quicker pace than was projected in the past. For the first time in U.S. history there are more people over the age of 65 than under the age of 5. Here in Vermont this has led to a recent downgrade in our sterling AAA bond […]
Where You Stand Depends on Where You Sit…
I am talking about the rules that China does and doesn’t play by. China has developed an alternative to Western style democratic capitalism. Call it authoritarian capitalism if you will. China does not feel that it has to adapt and accept the standards from the West. It is developing its own viable, and it thinks, […]
What Should We Be Doing Now?…
There is a general level of unease in the stock market today. Investors are not panicking but everyone is wondering, how long can this stock market rally continue? As the chart at the bottom shows, this current Bull Market is the longest in history. A big shoe has got to be about to fall or […]
Can We Find a Cure for Aging?…
According to Joseph Coughlin, an expert on aging and founder of MIT’s AgeLab, there are two simple questions that can determine how well you’ll navigate your later years: “Who’s going to change the light bulb, and how are you going to get an ice cream cone?” These appeared in a recent New Yorker article by […]
The Yield Curve as Recession Predictor…
Economists and policy makers are spending a lot of time talking about the yield curve these days. This bond market metric plots the yields investors receive for different maturity bonds. Because they demand more compensation for holding longer-term debt, the yield curve typically slopes upward to the right (see chart below ). On rare occasions, […]
Is The U.S. Overdue For a Recession?…
I will do my best economist impersonation here and answer – yes and no. The yes part has to do with age. This recovery is nearly ten years old and if we keep going past July, as we almost certainly will, it will be the longest recovery in history. But age alone does not kill […]
