By almost any measure Corporate America performed well in the first quarter. Revenues of S&P 500 companies grew on average 8.5% over year ago levels, and earnings before taxes advanced 13.2%. But behind these rosy numbers a few concerning items stood out. High freight costs weighed on results of a wide range of companies. Some […]
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The 2-Minute Thought: Secular Decline . . . or Not?
Do people still go to movie theaters? And will they keep going in the future? It’s a tough question because 2017 was a really tough year for theaters. Bloomberg wrote that 2017 was the worst year for movie ticket sales in the U.S. in over two decades. The Atlantic called last summer “Hollywood’s summer from […]
The 2-Minute Thought: A Reminder that a Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing
It was Alexander Pope who said, “A little learning is a dangerous thing,” and according to Carmen Sanchez and David Dunning in the Harvard Business Review, it’s true. It’s not complete beginners that need to worry. According to Sanchez and Dunning, when people are entirely new to a task, they stay alert and cautious. The […]
A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing…
You might have run across the article earlier this year about the class at Yale University that has attracted 1,200 students. Yes that’s right, 1,200 students – including 24 teaching assistants. The people in the cheap seats in the back, really are in the cheap seats. The name of the course is Psych 157, Psychology […]
What Did JPMorgan Chase Just Say?…
You would think Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase has little to worry about today. The economy is strong, loan losses are minimal and the bank’s earnings and stock price are doing great. But in Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders he is very worried about one thing – – a pickup in inflation. If […]
The Avocado as Emblem of Free Trade…
If you like avocados, be thankful for global trade. Be thankful for the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. And be thankful for Mexico, the world’s top producer, for enabling us to feed our avocado obsession. Yes, avocados have become a bit of an obsession for Americans — especially younger Americans. The hashtag #avocado […]
Charitable Giving Under the New Tax Act…
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed at the end of last year did not bring good news to the non-profit sector. Historically, taxpayers could either itemize deductions such as mortgage interest, charitable donations and state and local taxes or take a standard deduction. In an effort to simplify and reduce taxes, the new tax […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Amazon’s Shareholder Letters
Amazon’s shareholder letter for 2017 isn’t out yet, but it will be soon, and if you haven’t been a regular reader of Amazon’s letters, it might be worth looking out for it. Even if you’re not an Amazon investor or fan, these yearly letters are fascinating. The classic letter (and the most famous one) is […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Whither global leadership?
Gallup has been asking people for decades if they approve or disapprove of the leadership of the U.S. and other nations around the world. Always take surveys with a grain of salt, but the results for 2018 must be saying something (Gallup, “Rating World Leaders: 2018”). Among the interesting findings: Around the world, approval of […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The Final Four of Investment Rules
At the end of 2014, Morgan Housel wrote out his 16 investment rules to live by for an article in The Wall Street Journal. And while Housel didn’t write the article during the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, I somehow always associate it with the “Sweet Sixteen” and think about it in March. There are […]
Demographics are Destiny…
Well not exactly, but there is truth in this. It takes a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to hold a country’s population steady. The U.S. had been at this number but recently has fallen back (see chart below). The number of children American women hope to have and what they achieve is drifting […]
All That Is In Peril Is Not Lost…
Well maybe, but you might not want to be too complacent. China is the world leader in many areas today (manufacturing, exports, solar panels, etc.) and catching up fast in others, like technology. Chinese startups have come to Silicon Valley for years to see how things are done. Now they are wondering if there is […]
