Columbia Business School professor and investing guru Bruce Greenwald has said that you do not need to be right all the time to be a good investor. He has said that if you can get things roughly right 60 – 65% of the time, you’ll end up in the top 1% of investors. That would […]
News
Not a Matter of If but When…
I am talking about the next Bear Market. The stock market has been going up pretty much non-stop since March 2009 (see below). Stock market advances do not end just because of old age, but nothing grows to the sky and eventually we will get a recession and a market downturn after this impressive expansion. […]
Why China May Very Well Win a Trade War…
In a recent New York Times International piece (May 4, 2018) Thomas Friedman noted that America and China are coming at the current trade discussions from very different angles. The Trump Administration wants to draw the line now on trade before it is too late, before China gets too big. The Chinese believe they are […]
What the S&P 500’s Composition Tells Us…
The S&P 500 is an index of 500 large U.S. stocks weighted by their market capitalization or market value. We know it today as one of the most important gauges of U.S. stock performance, covering a broad swath of 11 sectors. But when the index started in 1957 in its current form, its composition was […]
Moving Things from Here to There…
By almost any measure Corporate America performed well in the first quarter. Revenues of S&P 500 companies grew on average 8.5% over year ago levels, and earnings before taxes advanced 13.2%. But behind these rosy numbers a few concerning items stood out. High freight costs weighed on results of a wide range of companies. Some […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Secular Decline . . . or Not?
Do people still go to movie theaters? And will they keep going in the future? It’s a tough question because 2017 was a really tough year for theaters. Bloomberg wrote that 2017 was the worst year for movie ticket sales in the U.S. in over two decades. The Atlantic called last summer “Hollywood’s summer from […]
The 2-Minute Thought: A Reminder that a Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing
It was Alexander Pope who said, “A little learning is a dangerous thing,” and according to Carmen Sanchez and David Dunning in the Harvard Business Review, it’s true. It’s not complete beginners that need to worry. According to Sanchez and Dunning, when people are entirely new to a task, they stay alert and cautious. The […]
A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing…
You might have run across the article earlier this year about the class at Yale University that has attracted 1,200 students. Yes that’s right, 1,200 students – including 24 teaching assistants. The people in the cheap seats in the back, really are in the cheap seats. The name of the course is Psych 157, Psychology […]
What Did JPMorgan Chase Just Say?…
You would think Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase has little to worry about today. The economy is strong, loan losses are minimal and the bank’s earnings and stock price are doing great. But in Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders he is very worried about one thing – – a pickup in inflation. If […]
The Avocado as Emblem of Free Trade…
If you like avocados, be thankful for global trade. Be thankful for the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. And be thankful for Mexico, the world’s top producer, for enabling us to feed our avocado obsession. Yes, avocados have become a bit of an obsession for Americans — especially younger Americans. The hashtag #avocado […]
Charitable Giving Under the New Tax Act…
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed at the end of last year did not bring good news to the non-profit sector. Historically, taxpayers could either itemize deductions such as mortgage interest, charitable donations and state and local taxes or take a standard deduction. In an effort to simplify and reduce taxes, the new tax […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Amazon’s Shareholder Letters
Amazon’s shareholder letter for 2017 isn’t out yet, but it will be soon, and if you haven’t been a regular reader of Amazon’s letters, it might be worth looking out for it. Even if you’re not an Amazon investor or fan, these yearly letters are fascinating. The classic letter (and the most famous one) is […]
