Let’s face up to not being on the same trajectory that was laid out in the second half of the 20th century — the one of peace, prosperity, and stability. There were some extraordinary conditions then that helped to usher in decades of strong economic growth and that aren’t being repeated today. One, as discussed […]
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The 2-Minute Thought: Postcard from Korea and China
After spending a week in South Korea, I can tell you that the threat from North Korea just isn’t top-of-mind for South Koreans. Not a single person I spoke to ever brought up North Korea or Kim Jong Un or military conflict in conversation. As you might have heard elsewhere, the geopolitical headlines that have […]
The 2-Minute Thought: A Changing Paradigm for Stock Valuation?
Could it be that the rules for valuing stocks have changed? That earnings and cash flow aren’t what determine a stock’s fundamental value? I don’t think so. But every value investor has to be wondering what in the wide world of investing is going on for value investing to be underperforming growth stocks for so […]
Playing the Long Game in China…
China is famous for taking the long view in both Economics and Politics. Zhou Enlai, the Premier under Mao Zedong, was once asked about the impact of the French Revolution, which occurred 200 years before his time. He famously replied, “it’s still too early to say.” China has been a difficult place for Western business. […]
Really? We are talking Constitutional Convention here?…
Regardless of where you stand politically I think we can all agree that things in Washington are pretty weird. The premise of Democracy is that anyone can be elected, and we proved this in spades last November. And now comes another curve ball. I know I am the only one in the room who doesn’t […]
Radically Open-Minded, Radically Transparent…
“It seems to me that if you look back on yourself a year ago and aren’t shocked by how stupid you were, you haven’t learned much.” That is just one example of the kind of “tough love” Ray Dalio matter-of-factly offers throughout his new book, Principles. If that strikes you as a bit harsh, wait […]
The Times They Are A Changin’…
Over the past year, Nelson Peltz, head of asset management firm Trian Partners, has staged one of the largest proxy fights ever against a public company, consumer products giant Procter & Gamble. Big dollars were at stake in this boardroom brawl. The total cost of the fight is estimated to have exceeded $60 million so […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The New Products You Remember — and Don’t
Since 2002, marketing agency Schneider Associates has been publishing a survey of the most memorable new products launched every year. In conjunction with Sentient Decision Science, the firm asks over a thousand consumers to identify the product launches they remember from the past year and then ranks new products accordingly. Keep in mind that the […]
The 2-Minute Thought Investors: Keep the Negative in Perspective
People naturally pay more attention to negative thoughts and feelings than to positive ones. It’s the way our brains work, and social scientists call it negativity bias. It’s all about how bad thoughts and experiences weigh more heavily on us than good ones do. There’s a good reason we’ve evolved a negativity bias: It has […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The Demographic Dividend Is Over
I’m refraining from using the title, “It’s the demography, stupid!” or “Demographics are destiny.” They have been used so many times before. But sometimes demographics really do explain so much. Demographic changes are slow. They are hard to see. They don’t trigger discrete market events or sudden price changes. But their effects can be huge. […]
This Is What Makes Our Business So Interesting…And Also So Difficult…
It was Joseph Schumpeter, the Austrian-born American economist, who spoke of “creative destruction,” the dynamic, change-oriented and innovation-based tendency of Capitalism. The market is constantly replacing old ways of doing things with new ways. New mouse traps are constantly being devised. All this makes for a very interesting and frustrating investment business, trying to figure […]
Only When The Tide Goes Out Do You Discover Who Is Swimming Naked…
Warren Buffet likes this line. For him it means it is easy to make money in a Bull market, the hard part is buying things which will survive Bear Markets. The same thing goes for natural disasters. Who was prepared and protected when bad things happened to good people in Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? The […]
