People naturally pay more attention to negative thoughts and feelings than to positive ones. It’s the way our brains work, and social scientists call it negativity bias. It’s all about how bad thoughts and experiences weigh more heavily on us than good ones do. There’s a good reason we’ve evolved a negativity bias: It has […]
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The 2-Minute Thought: The Demographic Dividend Is Over
I’m refraining from using the title, “It’s the demography, stupid!” or “Demographics are destiny.” They have been used so many times before. But sometimes demographics really do explain so much. Demographic changes are slow. They are hard to see. They don’t trigger discrete market events or sudden price changes. But their effects can be huge. […]
This Is What Makes Our Business So Interesting…And Also So Difficult…
It was Joseph Schumpeter, the Austrian-born American economist, who spoke of “creative destruction,” the dynamic, change-oriented and innovation-based tendency of Capitalism. The market is constantly replacing old ways of doing things with new ways. New mouse traps are constantly being devised. All this makes for a very interesting and frustrating investment business, trying to figure […]
Only When The Tide Goes Out Do You Discover Who Is Swimming Naked…
Warren Buffet likes this line. For him it means it is easy to make money in a Bull market, the hard part is buying things which will survive Bear Markets. The same thing goes for natural disasters. Who was prepared and protected when bad things happened to good people in Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? The […]
Could Technology Stocks Falter?…
No doubt about it, technology stocks are king. For the year, they’re up 25.6% versus the overall S&P 500’s return of 11.7%. And for the decade, large technology stocks are up 350%. That’s not even mentioning the stunning returns of bellwethers like Netflix, up more than 2100% the past five years, or Facebook, up 650% […]
Reinventing the Wheel?…
Fall is the time when individuals covered by employer sponsored health plans re-evaluate coverage and make policy selections for the upcoming year. Our provider, non-profit BlueCross BlueShield of Vermont, recently informed us that premiums for 2018 would increase 9.2%. This hefty increase sent me digging for an explanation. While a lot of things factor into […]
The 2-Minute Thought: When Things Go Wrong
We usually say we sell a stock in three situations. One is when it does well and becomes clearly overvalued. Another is when we find something better and cheaper to replace it with. The third is when things go wrong and it’s clear we’ve made a mistake. This is usually the hardest situation to judge. […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Beverages
The topic here is beverages. Non-alcoholic beverages – and in particular, the niche and alternative beverages that are sprouting up everywhere and making life so difficult for big mainstream soda. We’re not just talking about premium bottled water. There is “functional” water. There are plant-based waters. There are energy drinks, “relaxation” drinks, ready-to-drink coffee and […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The Bottom for Retail
Are we there yet? How about now? I’m talking about the bottom for retail stocks, which have suffered mightily. The S&P Retail Index is down 19% since last December, but it’s actually much worse than that. For example, teen retailer Abercrombie has been decimated, having lost three quarters of its value since its peak. And […]
Is It Just Drip, Drip, Dripping Away?…
We are talking here about U.S. competitiveness and economic might. In the 1800’s we wrestled economic power away from Britain. We begged, borrowed and stole their technology and trade secrets and this allowed us to take over the top slot. Now we have a new competitor – China. They are trying to do the same […]
Not on Everyone’s Bucket List …But Still…
I recently returned from the South Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Why the trip? I had visited Central Asia earlier and the South Caucasus is the next region to the East. The three states of the South Caucasus were former Soviet Republics. They gained independence in 1991. All three countries are blessed and cursed; blessed […]
What Happens When All Cars Are Electric?…
Electric cars will be taking over our roads. Not right away — now fewer than 1% of the world’s cars are electric. But it looks like the world is getting ready for roads free of gas and diesel vehicles. Volvo announced that it will make only electric vehicles from 2019. Norway is planning for only […]
