Some notable quotes from what we’ve been reading today: “Private citizens [in China] are now allowed to take up to $50,000 per year out of the country. If just one of every 20 Chinese citizens exercised this option, China’s foreign-exchange reserves would be wiped out.” -Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard economics professor in “The Great Escape […]
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The Gifts That Keep On Giving…And Giving…And Giving…
Online sales have come of age. We all know this. Check out the chart at the bottom. Sales have grown explosively. According the MasterCard Advisors it is expected that online sales grew by 20% in 2015. Logistics companies like FedEx and UPS have been running like crazy trying to get everything delivered on time. Not […]
Gentlemen Please…Please…Start Your Engines
The world has gotten off to a pretty nervous start here in 2016. As of this writing the Shanghai Stock Exchange is down 16% year to date and the S&P 500 has hit “correction” territory, down 10% from its highs. So what gives in the Middle Kingdom? China, as the chart below shows, has slowed […]
Surprise! 2016 May Be Different
Economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said there are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. Yet every year, strategists and commentators go through a New Year’s ritual of making bold, often mistaken predictions about the economy, markets, and geopolitics. Given their poor track record, a cynic […]
What Investors Should Do Now
Investors are not very good at handling market downturns. Research has shown that we feel the pain associated with investment losses more acutely than the pleasure of gains. Our ability to stick to a carefully considered investment plan deteriorates as losses mount and perhaps most dangerously, our reactions lag economic reality (see graph below). Consider […]
Coffee and Chocolate – What’s Not to Like?
In the investing world, popular opinion is not always your friend. Investors’ tend to “follow the herd” and this often leads to overpriced securities and ultimately, poor investment returns. But with recipes, things are a little different. The best are handed down from generation to generation. In the kitchen, follow the herd. Our recipe this […]
A Botanist’s Delight
In the old days, and I mean really old days, 150 million years ago, India was attached to Africa. It split off and moved east to where it is today and on its way it left Madagascar all by itself in the Indian Ocean. The island is not that well known but if you are […]
But An Economic Disaster
One step that can be taken is to improve the roads. Outside of the two major north/south and east/west roads, you need a 4-wheel drive to get around the country. Better roads would improve the ability of farmers to get produce to markets and ports, and in an agricultural economy this is crucial. A second […]
In Defense of Buying Bargains
Bargains can be a wonderful thing. People love getting a $100 pair of jeans for $50 — or a bottle of wine or anything else likewise discounted. The exception to this has always been stocks. When a coveted $40 stock goes to $20, it suddenly gets shunned, and that’s been especially true lately. Cheap stocks […]
When Will The Fed Raise Rates?
We don’t have any inside information on the workings of the Fed but our bet is that Janet Yellen and company will start raising short term rates in December. Or at least we think they should. At the last Fed meeting the decision was made to leave rates as is, and the stock market declined. […]
Knowing Which Way The Wind Blows
It is pretty difficult to know what’s what in the world of Global Warming, or should we call it Global Weirdness? The weather we get these days seems to come in only one size: extreme. The world’s biggest weather phenomenon, El Nino, is expected to occur again this year. El Nino comes around every two […]
Cognitive Impairment is a Risk for Everyone
Aging is never too fun to think about, but we all eventually see the physical signs: Slower marathon times, changing body shapes, and graying hair are, after all, hard not to notice. What we don’t recognize as well is cognitive decline, and as a result, we don’t do as good a job preparing for it. […]
