It has been 14 months now since the arrival of COVID in Vermont. We seem to be past the worst now and are slowly getting back to some semblance of normal. This is a good time to assess what has happened to the Vermont economy, and who better to turn to than our long-time friend, […]
Eric Hanson
The Complete Inflation Story…. (Abridged)…
The economy is on a tear today. Driven by the post-shutdown bounceback, numerous rounds of stimulus, and the rapid rollout of the COVID vaccine, GDP is expected to grow over 6% this year, maybe even 8%. These are growth rates not seen since the Reagan years. But the question now is, is this recovery about […]
GameStop Was The Best Game Ever…
Until it was not. The stock surged from under $20 to $483 in just a few days before falling back to $50 as I write. The new “swarm traders” (so dubbed by The Economist recently), denizens of Reddit and Robinhood, battled the Wall Street hedge funds for control of the price. Some investors won, some […]
The Question We Get Asked A Lot…
Is this stock market today a Bubble? If you ask Jeremy Grantham, one of the Deans of the Investment business and a founder of the Investment management firm GMO, it certainly is a Bubble. To him the market looks eerily like the housing market of 2008 and the technology market of 2000. Scary high. But […]
To be Successful on Wall Street…
Maybe we need to change the way we think. We have so many things to worry about right now. Will the economy bounce back sharply or will Covid win again? How long will the Fed’s stimulus last? And which sectors will lead the market? The tried-and-true giant media and e-commerce companies (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, […]
Our Holiday Gift for 2020…
I t has been a tough and trying year. But we all persevered. Here’s to our strength and to a less stressful year in 2021! In the meantime let’s give thanks to family and friends and for safety and health. And let’s leave a little room for one last treat in 2020, our dessert recipe. […]
How Can China Grow So Fast ..?
While investors earn so little? Look at the chart below Not much of a return from the Shanghai Stock Exchange the past 10 years despite the rapid growth of the economy. What is the reason investors did not get much of a return? The simple explanation is the quote below. Companies in China do not […]
It’s the Coronavirus, Stupid…
So how does 2021 look? We will shamelessly borrow here from James Carville’s advice to Bill Clinton before the 1992 election, “It’s the Economy, stupid.” Today it’s all about COVID-19. Right now, we appear to be in Round Two of the outbreak. Things are getting worse, as they are also in Europe. The good news, […]
Is Globalization About to be Unwound?…
Back in the 1980s and 1990s, economic pundits raved about how new global supply chains and new companies were reshaping the Global Economy. Remember the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China)? And the Four Tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore)? Everyone seemed to benefit from globalization. The West got cheaper goods, which increased […]
Thin Reeds in the Fog…
Back in the 1970s a market commentator used the term ‘Thin Reeds’ to describe an event, not yet clearly visible, which could be a big surprise in the future. One surprise today could be the sustained decline in the dollar. The dollar has been weak this year (see chart below). Over the past six months […]
Navigating Medicare: As Tricky As Staying Healthy…
Rube Goldberg the American inventor and cartoonist was famous for drawing complicated gadgets performing simple tasks. Our health care system is very Rube Goldbergesque. Medicare has not gotten any simpler; in fact it has gotten a lot more complex since its founding in 1965. Medicare does not as of yet include every letter in the […]
What’s Trending In China Today?…
Six decades ago during the ‘Four Pests’ Campaign in China all conversation would stop if you heard the buzzing of a fly. Only after the fly was dispatched would conversation continue. More recently if a Westerner wanted to bring conversation to a halt, all they needed to do was show off a tattoo. Traditional China […]
