That chart at the bottom is from a recent Economist article. It’s interesting how economic power has shifted first from East to West and now back to the East. In the early centuries China and India were the largest economies, then Europe became preeminent. America’s turn came in the 1900s and with the exception of […]
Eric Hanson
Is Globalization Dead?…
The simple answer is no, globalization is not dead but we have to add some big caveats. President Trump wants to re-shore jobs lost to globalization in the 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s. If America can bring manufacturing back then we will be strong again. At least this is the theory. The problem, however, is that […]
Time To Question The Middle Kingdom?…
I have been an admirer of China’s growth for a long time. The doomsayers predict it will come to an end and maybe soon, but with a nearly forty-year track record of solid results, I will stick with China until they stumble. Call me stupid. However, today there may be reasons for me to second […]
The Longest U.S. Stock Market Rally Ever…
From the lows in early 2009, it has been up, up and away for Wall Street. The market has not suffered a decline of 20% (the Bear market definition) in over nine years. However, this market has not been loved. Stock prices have risen less on an annual basis than the average Bull Market and […]
When ‘Cash- Strapped’ Takes on New Meaning…
When you think ‘siege’ you think of the Middle Ages and months of castles surrounded and stalemated armies. Sieges don’t happen in the modern era. Well a siege actually did happen in Sarajevo (Bosnia) between 1992 and 1995. The Serbs completely surrounded the city and pounded Sarajevo daily with bombs and sniper fire from the […]
“Once A Year Go Somewhere You Have Never Been Before” – The Dalai Lama
I am the kind of person who needs to go to a place and see it, then I can better understand the history and current events. In the recent past I have been to Iran, the five ‘Stans, the South Caucasus and this summer, the Balkans. All of them are now a little more understandable. […]
Last of the Dow Originals…General Electric…
Professionals may follow the more statistically accurate Standard & Poor 500 to measure the stock market but the general public still stands with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A railroad dominated Dow was created in 1884 but it soon gave way to an all Industrial Index of 12 stocks in 1896. The chart below shows […]
Some Things We Have Run Across Recently…
The demilitarized zone between North and South Korea has always interested me, not because of the military standoff but because of its ecological history and now, its economic development. The DMZ is not a fence or a Berlin Wall. It is an enormous swath of land, 528 square miles in size. Because there has been […]
Investing is Just Like Gambling With One Big Exception…
If you play long enough in Las Vegas you will eventually lose. The odds are stacked against you. In the stock market the opposite is true. Stock prices are based on corporate earnings and over time corporate earnings go up. Historically they have increased approximately 7% per year over ten-year or more periods. The amount […]
Not a Matter of If but When…
I am talking about the next Bear Market. The stock market has been going up pretty much non-stop since March 2009 (see below). Stock market advances do not end just because of old age, but nothing grows to the sky and eventually we will get a recession and a market downturn after this impressive expansion. […]
Why China May Very Well Win a Trade War…
In a recent New York Times International piece (May 4, 2018) Thomas Friedman noted that America and China are coming at the current trade discussions from very different angles. The Trump Administration wants to draw the line now on trade before it is too late, before China gets too big. The Chinese believe they are […]
A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing…
You might have run across the article earlier this year about the class at Yale University that has attracted 1,200 students. Yes that’s right, 1,200 students – including 24 teaching assistants. The people in the cheap seats in the back, really are in the cheap seats. The name of the course is Psych 157, Psychology […]
