Move over baby boomers, Generation X and Millennials. All the fretting and worrying over you is done. The focus now is on Generation Z, or the “iGen.” These are kids and teens born between 1995 and 2012 who have never known life without the internet. They have Instagram accounts before they get into high school, […]
Julie Won
The 2-Minute Thought: Welcome back to the 1930s?
Let’s face up to not being on the same trajectory that was laid out in the second half of the 20th century — the one of peace, prosperity, and stability. There were some extraordinary conditions then that helped to usher in decades of strong economic growth and that aren’t being repeated today. One, as discussed […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Postcard from Korea and China
After spending a week in South Korea, I can tell you that the threat from North Korea just isn’t top-of-mind for South Koreans. Not a single person I spoke to ever brought up North Korea or Kim Jong Un or military conflict in conversation. As you might have heard elsewhere, the geopolitical headlines that have […]
The 2-Minute Thought: A Changing Paradigm for Stock Valuation?
Could it be that the rules for valuing stocks have changed? That earnings and cash flow aren’t what determine a stock’s fundamental value? I don’t think so. But every value investor has to be wondering what in the wide world of investing is going on for value investing to be underperforming growth stocks for so […]
Radically Open-Minded, Radically Transparent…
“It seems to me that if you look back on yourself a year ago and aren’t shocked by how stupid you were, you haven’t learned much.” That is just one example of the kind of “tough love” Ray Dalio matter-of-factly offers throughout his new book, Principles. If that strikes you as a bit harsh, wait […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The New Products You Remember — and Don’t
Since 2002, marketing agency Schneider Associates has been publishing a survey of the most memorable new products launched every year. In conjunction with Sentient Decision Science, the firm asks over a thousand consumers to identify the product launches they remember from the past year and then ranks new products accordingly. Keep in mind that the […]
The 2-Minute Thought Investors: Keep the Negative in Perspective
People naturally pay more attention to negative thoughts and feelings than to positive ones. It’s the way our brains work, and social scientists call it negativity bias. It’s all about how bad thoughts and experiences weigh more heavily on us than good ones do. There’s a good reason we’ve evolved a negativity bias: It has […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The Demographic Dividend Is Over
I’m refraining from using the title, “It’s the demography, stupid!” or “Demographics are destiny.” They have been used so many times before. But sometimes demographics really do explain so much. Demographic changes are slow. They are hard to see. They don’t trigger discrete market events or sudden price changes. But their effects can be huge. […]
Could Technology Stocks Falter?…
No doubt about it, technology stocks are king. For the year, they’re up 25.6% versus the overall S&P 500’s return of 11.7%. And for the decade, large technology stocks are up 350%. That’s not even mentioning the stunning returns of bellwethers like Netflix, up more than 2100% the past five years, or Facebook, up 650% […]
The 2-Minute Thought: When Things Go Wrong
We usually say we sell a stock in three situations. One is when it does well and becomes clearly overvalued. Another is when we find something better and cheaper to replace it with. The third is when things go wrong and it’s clear we’ve made a mistake. This is usually the hardest situation to judge. […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Beverages
The topic here is beverages. Non-alcoholic beverages – and in particular, the niche and alternative beverages that are sprouting up everywhere and making life so difficult for big mainstream soda. We’re not just talking about premium bottled water. There is “functional” water. There are plant-based waters. There are energy drinks, “relaxation” drinks, ready-to-drink coffee and […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The Bottom for Retail
Are we there yet? How about now? I’m talking about the bottom for retail stocks, which have suffered mightily. The S&P Retail Index is down 19% since last December, but it’s actually much worse than that. For example, teen retailer Abercrombie has been decimated, having lost three quarters of its value since its peak. And […]
