Move over baby boomers, Generation X and Millennials. All the fretting and worrying over you is done. The focus now is on Generation Z, or the “iGen.” These are kids and teens born between 1995 and 2012 who have never known life without the internet. They have Instagram accounts before they get into high school, […]
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When Success Leads To Failure…
A handful of firms are having a larger and larger impact on the U.S. economy. Nowhere is this more evident than in the stock market where top tech titans Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Google alone represent almost 15% of the S&P 500’s overall market capitalization. Market observers, and Value investors in particular, are scratching […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Welcome back to the 1930s?
Let’s face up to not being on the same trajectory that was laid out in the second half of the 20th century — the one of peace, prosperity, and stability. There were some extraordinary conditions then that helped to usher in decades of strong economic growth and that aren’t being repeated today. One, as discussed […]
The 2-Minute Thought: Postcard from Korea and China
After spending a week in South Korea, I can tell you that the threat from North Korea just isn’t top-of-mind for South Koreans. Not a single person I spoke to ever brought up North Korea or Kim Jong Un or military conflict in conversation. As you might have heard elsewhere, the geopolitical headlines that have […]
The 2-Minute Thought: A Changing Paradigm for Stock Valuation?
Could it be that the rules for valuing stocks have changed? That earnings and cash flow aren’t what determine a stock’s fundamental value? I don’t think so. But every value investor has to be wondering what in the wide world of investing is going on for value investing to be underperforming growth stocks for so […]
Playing the Long Game in China…
China is famous for taking the long view in both Economics and Politics. Zhou Enlai, the Premier under Mao Zedong, was once asked about the impact of the French Revolution, which occurred 200 years before his time. He famously replied, “it’s still too early to say.” China has been a difficult place for Western business. […]
Really? We are talking Constitutional Convention here?…
Regardless of where you stand politically I think we can all agree that things in Washington are pretty weird. The premise of Democracy is that anyone can be elected, and we proved this in spades last November. And now comes another curve ball. I know I am the only one in the room who doesn’t […]
Radically Open-Minded, Radically Transparent…
“It seems to me that if you look back on yourself a year ago and aren’t shocked by how stupid you were, you haven’t learned much.” That is just one example of the kind of “tough love” Ray Dalio matter-of-factly offers throughout his new book, Principles. If that strikes you as a bit harsh, wait […]
The Times They Are A Changin’…
Over the past year, Nelson Peltz, head of asset management firm Trian Partners, has staged one of the largest proxy fights ever against a public company, consumer products giant Procter & Gamble. Big dollars were at stake in this boardroom brawl. The total cost of the fight is estimated to have exceeded $60 million so […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The New Products You Remember — and Don’t
Since 2002, marketing agency Schneider Associates has been publishing a survey of the most memorable new products launched every year. In conjunction with Sentient Decision Science, the firm asks over a thousand consumers to identify the product launches they remember from the past year and then ranks new products accordingly. Keep in mind that the […]
The 2-Minute Thought Investors: Keep the Negative in Perspective
People naturally pay more attention to negative thoughts and feelings than to positive ones. It’s the way our brains work, and social scientists call it negativity bias. It’s all about how bad thoughts and experiences weigh more heavily on us than good ones do. There’s a good reason we’ve evolved a negativity bias: It has […]
The 2-Minute Thought: The Demographic Dividend Is Over
I’m refraining from using the title, “It’s the demography, stupid!” or “Demographics are destiny.” They have been used so many times before. But sometimes demographics really do explain so much. Demographic changes are slow. They are hard to see. They don’t trigger discrete market events or sudden price changes. But their effects can be huge. […]
