News & Insights

Earlier this month, the Treasury Department reported that the nation’s gross debt for the first time exceeded $31 trillion. Interest on these obligations is expected to be approximately $400 billion this year or about 8% of all federal revenues collected. The debt’s relatively short maturity profile means that interest rate increases will start pressuring federal […]

Used car buyers have received an unwelcome crash course in supply and demand over the last two years. As new car production cratered, consumers flush with cash and low-cost financing looked to the used market as an acceptable substitute, pushing prices through the roof. With new car inventory inching up, and higher financing rates poised […]

Some say this may be the biggest investment bubble in the world today. Let’s do the math and see. China has been on an incredible growth curve since 1979. The economic initiatives Deng Xiaoping put in place in the late seventies have lifted more people out of poverty, more quickly than has ever been done […]

Dust off the passport. We are goin’ traveling. The dollar is stronger today than it has been in 20 years. Now is the time to go. This year alone the dollar is up 15% against a basket of world currencies, and for the first year in ages the dollar is worth more than the Euro. […]

The latest job statistics held mixed results. The good news? Another 315,000 jobs were added to the economy, bringing the total number of people employed to just shy of the 158.87 million peak logged back in February 2020. But while the closely watched labor force participation rate inched ahead to 62.4%, it still lies below […]

CNBC recently reported that 72% of recent homebuyers feel regret about their purchase — either because they paid too much or because they rushed the process and made too many concessions. Whether that survey is robust or accurately reflects reality, I don’t know. But I certainly can believe there is regret out there — because […]

Two thousand years ago China and India were the world’s largest economies. As recently as the early 1800s China was still the world’s largest. The final one hundred years of the Qing Dynasty, however, brought the country to its knees, and it was not until the ascension of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 that rapid growth […]

You might call it Korea’s splurge of the summer. Writer Se-Woong Koo, in his excellent English-language blog Korea Exposé, calls it an “over-the-top affair” and “the-most-talked-about delicacy of the season.” Others I know just call it excessive and ridiculous. What we’re talking about is a Korean dessert called bingsu, a traditional treat that Koreans long […]

Investment advisors have a mixed track record when it comes to predicting things like interest rates, stock prices, and inflation. So it was with some sympathy that I turned to a recent New York Times article that featured eight Opinion columnists’ incorrect predictions over the years. If a luminary like Paul Krugman can get things […]

In fact, with all due respect to Mick Jagger and the Stones, you can’t get what you need now either. Global supply chains still are roiling profits and plans. In General Electric’s last earnings call, the words “supply chain” came up 24 times. For General Motors, they appeared 14 times. And for Tesla, there were […]

The U.S. population grew 0.1% last year, the slowest rate on record. Births exceeded deaths by only 148k. This low number may be temporary, caused by the increase in Covid deaths and the delay in some births due to economic turmoil. But the fact is, the U.S. birth rate has been coming down. Between 1990 […]

And I hope I am very much wrong. I am worried that today’s economy is like the period 1965-1982. Back then the economy was overheating from the costs of the Vietnam War and Great Society social spending. Congress was unwilling to raise taxes to cool the economy, and the Federal Reserve was in a classic […]